Statistical Marvel: Why Bulldog Tory Dickson is the most efficient scorer the game has ever seen
Dickson is the most accurate player to have a minimum of 100 shots since 1965.
It’s almost impossible to watch an AFL match on television without commentators and former players lamenting the inability for modern players to kick goals.
While the consistent attacks on goalkicking is more than warranted, it’s almost hard to believe that Western Bulldog Tory Dickson is the greatest converter of all-time.
Going on Champion Data statistics from 2019, goalkicking accuracy has plummeted to historic lows, with just 45.8 per cent of shots being converted.
In comparison, goal kicking accuracy from 2009 shows that players were converting at 49.8 per cent.
From 2002-2008 the conversion rate never dipped below 50 per cent, with the 2002 season standing out with 53.6 per cent.
These statistics were separated into three groups; set shots, snaps and on the run. The groups were then combined to create the overall accuracy percentage.
Although goalkicking accuracy has dropped 7.8 per cent over an 18 year period, it doesn’t mean there are no great modern day exponents of goalkicking.
As mentioned before, Tory Dickson holds a record that many of the game’s best goalkickers would be envious of.
While it’s easy to praise the star forwards of yesteryear like Tony Lockett, Jason Dunstall and Gary Ablett Snr, statistics sometimes don’t do them any favours.
Of the three aforementioned names, only Lockett’s goal kicking accuracy sits in the truly elite percentile.
Lockett’s conversion rate of 69.74 per cent shouldn’t shock many, as his routine is consistently mooted as one of the best the game has ever seen.
However, when it comes to statistics, Dickson’s goalkicking accuracy sits at a mightily impressive 74.79 per cent.
Before people believe that I am suggesting that Dickson is a better goalkicker than Lockett, I must state some other relevant statistics.
Over Lockett’s 281-game career, he kicked 1360 goals, and only 590 behinds - a total of 1950 shots at goal (not including shots that failed to register a score).
That sample size alone should reinforce his status as the best goalkicker the league has ever seen.
When we look at Dickson, he has kicked 181 goals from his 113 games, with the sharpshooter only registering 61 behinds - a total of 242 scoring shots.
In comparison, Lockett attempted 1708 more shots than Dickson - a massive difference.
However, it’s hard to compare football in the 1980s with the game of today.
The game has never demanded more from its players, with the game’s stars running further and at a higher intensity than players from years-gone-by.
That, partnered with many clubs’ desire to put more pressure on the ball carrier, it’s easy to see how goalkicking has become increasingly difficult.
Looking at Champion Data’s pressure index, the past two AFL seasons has seen the highest level of pressure being applied since the statistics were first taken in 2013.
The correlation between pressure and goalkicking accuracy seems to be very strong, with snaps on goal (-0.69) and on the run (-0.857) being affected by added pressure.
While players are fitter than they’ve ever been, there have been many suggestions that players are recruited based on their physical skills and size above their footy skills.
This does have some merit, but it’s impossible to prove that recruiting athletes is the reason behind the demise of goalkicking.
Dickson said in 2016 that he isn’t hiding the secret to kicking goals, stating that practice really does make perfect.
He said that taking extra shots at training under fatigue and game-like pressure is more beneficial than having shots under no duress.
It is important to mention that the Western Bulldogs play their home games under the roof at Marvel Stadium, all but eliminating any hindrances such as the wind.
Despite many suggestions of why Dickson has the best goalkicking accuracy for anyone with more than 100 shots at goal, it’s probably easier to place it down to him being a natural goal kicker.
Far from a perfect athlete, Dickson’s role revolves heavily around converting shots at goal. He does provide pressure as a forward, but he’s far from elite in that metric.
While judging players purely on statistics is somewhat dangerous, the Bulldogs forward should be recognised for being able perfect one of the most important aspects of our great game, goalkicking.
When the Western Bulldogs selected Dickson with pick 57 in the 2011 AFL National Draft, the then 24-year-old would have never thought he’d become a statistical marvel.
Now 32, the small forward will be looking to continue his sharpshooting trends this season, as the Bulldogs look for another finals berth.